Einleitung und Fragestellung In den letzten Jahren1 konnten in diversen Ländern der Aufstieg populistischer Phänomene beobachtet werden: der Aufstieg der AfD in Deutschland, die seit ihrer Gründung binnen 5 Jahren in sämtlichen deutschen Landtagen, dem Bundestag und dem europäischen Parlament vertreten ist; der Wahlsieg Donald J. Trumps in den USA; der Aufstieg der Lega in Italien und viele weitere Beispiele. Ein Verlaufsmuster, das bei jedem einzelnen dieser Aufstiege in der Öffentlichkeit auftritt ist das folgende Ping-Pong-Spiel zwischen Medien und Umfragewerten: Je größer die gesellschaftliche Bekanntheit, desto größer das Medienecho, desto größer die Bekanntheit, etc.

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Great news: a scientific article I have co-authored has been accepted for publication and can now be found online here or via the DOI 10.1016/j.spa.2020.01.011. Yes, my list of publications has been amended 1. This article has been through quite a lengthy review process, and was the main motivation for another one of my blog posts. This post dates to September 2018, yet I only started working on these simulations in the framework of the second round of peer review.

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A Standard Problem: Determining Sample Size Recently, I was tasked with a straightforward question: "In an A/B test setting, how many samples do I have to collect in order to obtain significant results?" As ususal in statistics, the answer is not quite as straightforward as the question, and it depends quite a bit on the framework. In this case, the A/B test was supposed to test whether the effect of a treatment on the success rate p had the assumed size e.

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I have a personal Google account, complete with gmail, gdrive and everything else. I first opened it up as a sort of spam email for all kinds of logins, but started to it use more and more due to its convenience. I was always slightly worried about the magnitude of data collected by Google on me, yet I never found a way to pinpoint exactly the extent of my slight worrying.

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Author's picture

Sebastian Schweer

Theoretiker, Ingenieur, Berater, Erzähler.

Data Scientist (Teamlead)

Heidelberg, Germany