Einleitung und Fragestellung In den letzten Jahren1 konnten in diversen Ländern der Aufstieg populistischer Phänomene beobachtet werden: der Aufstieg der AfD in Deutschland, die seit ihrer Gründung binnen 5 Jahren in sämtlichen deutschen Landtagen, dem Bundestag und dem europäischen Parlament vertreten ist; der Wahlsieg Donald J. Trumps in den USA; der Aufstieg der Lega in Italien und viele weitere Beispiele. Ein Verlaufsmuster, das bei jedem einzelnen dieser Aufstiege in der Öffentlichkeit auftritt ist das folgende Ping-Pong-Spiel zwischen Medien und Umfragewerten: Je größer die gesellschaftliche Bekanntheit, desto größer das Medienecho, desto größer die Bekanntheit, etc.
The Final Result Let me start this article by showing you the final result of this article. Below you see a screengrab of me checking the new mails I received today, from across 3 separate mail accounts (including a gmail account) deleting two mails on the fly, while skimming the remaining two searching through all my mails for the keywords "thalia AND FIFA" and finding the result immediately
Today, just a short notification concerning the use of analytics on this blog: I have decided to get rid of the Google Analytic Tag on these pages. It was very joyful to know how many people surfed to my little blog from all over the world, yet it doesn't outweigh my reservation against Google obtaining entry into almost each and every single piece of software surrounding us. Asides from on-site analytic tags I have recently decided to circumvent Google and its services as well as possible in my personal digital footprint as well.
Great news: a scientific article I have co-authored has been accepted for publication and can now be found online here or via the DOI 10.1016/j.spa.2020.01.011. Yes, my list of publications has been amended 1. This article has been through quite a lengthy review process, and was the main motivation for another one of my blog posts. This post dates to September 2018, yet I only started working on these simulations in the framework of the second round of peer review.
A Standard Problem: Determining Sample Size Recently, I was tasked with a straightforward question: "In an A/B test setting, how many samples do I have to collect in order to obtain significant results?" As ususal in statistics, the answer is not quite as straightforward as the question, and it depends quite a bit on the framework. In this case, the A/B test was supposed to test whether the effect of a treatment on the success rate p had the assumed size e.
On this page I have collected the bibliographic details of all the articles I have written, mainly of scientific (i.e. statistical) nature. I have written almost all of the scientific papers while under contract at a public university, either in Darmstadt or in Heidelberg. I have submitted all papers to journals which are edited and refereed by other scientists in presumably public institutions. Yet, for some reason, the results of the publically funded, publically relevant1 research is NOT officially publically available.
Update 2018-02-17: The title of this article has changed reflecting new information I have received since publishing. For mor information, I refer to the last paragraph. A treasure trove of leaked passwords The API of pwnedpasswords.com is quite remarkable. It not only allows you to fetch the results generally obtained by typing in your e-mail into the browser interface and finding out whether or not you've been pwned from the comfort of your shell.
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